dorian moves on

This is my last Dorian-related post. We had a lot of wind last night, and rain most of the evening, but little in the way of accumulation, perhaps all of two inches so far. Dorian is doing far more damage along the Florida coast, but not as much if it had come ashore. And did I mention how slow Dorian’s moving? Compare this screen capture with yesterdays, or further, look at the National Hurricane Center’s forecast tracking maps and see just how off all of them have been with regards to where Dorian was forecast to be, especially today? Late last week it was forecast to be all the way up the east coast of the US. Instead it hasn’t even passed by Jacksonville yet. And its overall wind speeds have dropped it down to a category two, if not a category one, hurricane. So we can be thankful for that.

Now begins the long repair and rebuilding down in the Grand Bahama and Great Abaco islands.

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waiting for dorian, day 7 – the new (un)normal

Dorian is still stalled over the northern Bahamas. It was the strongest storm to hit the Bahamas in history when it hit as a category 5. It’s now downgraded to a “mere” category 2. It’s killed at least five people, with the possibility of many more after the weather clears and the flood waters subside. We had some very minor rain bands come through Orlando this morning, but that was the extent of it. It’s now partly cloudy with the sun breaking in and out of the clouds. A typical summery day here in central Florida.

I’ve felt that Dorian was the strangest of the hurricanes that have come to Florida so far. I’ve never seen a hurricane park on top of a populated area. It could have easily been south Florida that Dorian decided to stall over, and if it had, south Florida and Miami-Dade would have been nearly scrubbed off the map when it finally moved on. The destruction would be immense, and he economic impact to Florida as well as the southeast would take a decade or more to mitigate. This is what I’m afraid the new normal due to climate change/global warming is delivering to us. Dorian marks the opening of what may very well be many more such catastrophic weather events.

Activity around the Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean continues apace. The storm near Texas and Mexico is now organized into a depression; the circle indicates circulation due to organization. Tracking forecast indicates it will hit Mexico as a storm, but considering how Dorian has behaved, I’m wondering if our forecast models aren’t going to have to be revisited. The best any of us can do now is just watch the weather satellite photos so we know which way to head away from these things. The storm that originated off Africa is taking longer to organize.